OTT beat SEA 4–3 in overtime. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Josh Norris scored on the power play at 2:34 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Chris Driedger allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:32 |  OTT | Josh Norris from Brady Tkachuk, Nick Holden | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 5:43 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Artem Zub, Tim Stützle | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 7:40 | OTT | Parker Kelly unassisted | 0–3 | 88% → 96% |
| P3 9:14 | SEA | Jared McCann from Vince Dunn, Jordan Eberle | 1–3 | 0% → 4% |
| P3 9:50 | SEA | Ryan Donato from Jamie Oleksiak, Morgan Geekie | 2–3 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 13:01 | SEA | Mason Appleton from Yanni Gourde, Colin Blackwell | 3–3 | 14% → 49% |
| OT 2:34 | OTT | Josh NorrisPP from Thomas Chabot, Connor Brown | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Appleton C | 18:05 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.02 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 12:36 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.09 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 7:34 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.10 | +0.40 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 20:19 | +0.17 | +0.24 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 10:16 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 19:09 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 21:12 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 19:11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 18:18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 18:34 | −0.02 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 13:47 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:29 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 16:55 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 23:13 | −0.15 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 15:03 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:33 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.07 | −0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 9:39 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.13 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 20:49 | −0.58 | +0.14 | −0.72 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Driedger G | 62:34 | −1.13 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Norris C | 17:40 | 2 | +1.55 | −0.11 | +1.68 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.79 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Parker Kelly C | 10:58 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.11 | +0.62 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 19:46 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 20:48 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin White C | 15:43 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 12:51 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 20:48 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 14:24 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 9:59 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 12:16 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 17:25 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 19:03 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Formenton L | 17:06 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 9:42 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 22:59 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Sanford L | 17:43 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 29:53 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.07 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 62:34 | +0.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.