BOS beat CHI 4–3. BOS also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: David Pastrnak scored at 19:42 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Jeremy Swayman allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:12 | BOS | Charlie Coyle from Connor Clifton | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:41 |  CHI | Alex DeBrincat from Patrick Kane | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 4:12 | CHI | Brandon Hagel from Jonathan Toews, Kirby Dach | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 11:57 | BOS | Jack AhcanPP from Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 15:23 | BOS | David PastrnakPP from Charlie McAvoy, Patrice Bergeron | 2–3 | 54% → 75% |
| P3 3:24 | CHI | Brandon HagelPP from Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 19:42 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Patrice Bergeron, Taylor Hall | 3–4 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel L | 17:57 | 2 | +1.40 | −0.05 | +1.45 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 23:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.24 | +0.25 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Alec Regula D | 12:46 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 12:12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 7:46 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 5:05 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 17:31 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 17:03 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 23:05 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Dominik Kubalik L | 7:23 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henrik Borgstrom C | 10:16 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 23:14 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.24 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 13:19 | −0.29 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 26:02 | −0.29 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 21:12 | −0.38 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 14:28 | −0.38 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 20:37 | −0.52 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 21:24 | −0.56 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 58:46 | −0.92 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 17:58 | 2 | 1 | +1.88 | +0.42 | +1.21 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jack Ahcan D | 15:51 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.12 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:04 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.17 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 16:37 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.37 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 21:49 | +0.28 | +0.39 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 14:16 | +0.15 | +0.11 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 17:23 | +0.15 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 19:21 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 13:28 | +0.13 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 12:45 | +0.06 | +0.19 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 19:39 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.22 | −0.26 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 10:22 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 10:16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 11:50 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 24:58 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.33 | −0.29 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 16:07 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 18:10 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.29 | −0.53 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 14:07 | −0.23 | +0.12 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 60:00 | −1.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.