EDM beat WSH 4–3 in overtime. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 5.2 to 3.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Connor McDavid scored at 3:27 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:17 | WSH | Nicklas Backstrom from Anthony Mantha, T.J. Oshie | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 12:01 | EDM | Kailer YamamotoPP from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 18:12 | EDM | Cody Ceci from Brad Malone, Derek Ryan | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 6:13 | WSH | T.J. OshiePP from Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 10:31 | EDM | Brad Malone from Zack Kassian, Evan Bouchard | 2–3 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 19:58 | WSH | T.J. OshiePP from John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov | 3–3 | 2% → 48% |
| OT 3:27 | EDM | Connor McDavid unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Oshie R | 19:29 | 2 | 1 | +1.32 | −0.19 | +1.34 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.03 |
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 20:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.22 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| John Carlson D | 25:50 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 10:01 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 23:00 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 15:57 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.20 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 13:53 | −0.17 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.09 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:47 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 14:15 | −0.18 | −0.31 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 16:02 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 8:55 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 13:35 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 11:28 | −0.32 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 22:08 | −0.41 | −0.46 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:17 | −0.44 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 19:35 | −0.47 | −0.49 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 17:41 | −0.53 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 21:21 | −0.80 | −0.13 | −0.72 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 60:58 | +0.70 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 25:09 | 1 | 1 | +1.24 | +0.51 | +0.49 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.07 |
| Cody Ceci D | 26:15 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.22 | +0.63 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 19:29 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.22 | +0.61 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Malone C | 10:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.16 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Evan Bouchard D | 16:55 | 2 | +0.34 | +0.54 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devin Shore C | 11:36 | +0.18 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 8:05 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 18:08 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sceviour C | 6:28 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Duncan Keith D | 21:52 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 8:44 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| William Lagesson D | 8:56 | −0.10 | +0.21 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 26:53 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 28:20 | −0.13 | +0.49 | −0.69 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 18:30 | −0.15 | +0.10 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 8:47 | −0.60 | +0.08 | −0.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 20:08 | −0.88 | +0.05 | −0.93 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 19:40 | −0.96 | −0.03 | −0.73 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mikko Koskinen G | 63:27 | −0.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.