NJD beat COL 5–3. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 4.4 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nathan Bastian scored on the power play at 13:04 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 53% to 86%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:04 |  COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:27 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar | 2–0 | 65% → 78% |
| P2 5:52 | COL | Cale Makar from Devon Toews, Nathan MacKinnon | 3–0 | 82% → 94% |
| P2 9:20 | NJD | Tomas Tatar from Jonas Siegenthaler, Jesper Bratt | 3–1 | 5% → 16% |
| P2 12:18 | NJD | Ty Smith from Jack Hughes, Yegor Sharangovich | 3–2 | 15% → 31% |
| P2 17:21 | NJD | Damon SeversonPP from Jesper Bratt, Pavel Zacha | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 13:04 | NJD | Nathan BastianPP from Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 3–4 | 53% → 86% |
| P3 18:19 | NJD | Yegor SharangovichEN from Dawson Mercer | 3–5 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 21:05 | 1 | 2 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.12 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.37 | −0.01 |
| Cale Makar D | 25:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.06 | +0.34 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 22:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.02 | +0.41 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 15:09 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 20:00 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 20:03 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.15 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Helm C | 8:19 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 7:51 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 7:22 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 13:42 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 22:50 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.26 | −0.14 | +0.19 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 14:39 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 22:13 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Murray D | 13:21 | −0.30 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 13:58 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 16:36 | −0.34 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 16:30 | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 14:44 | −0.43 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 57:53 | +0.35 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Bratt L | 16:18 | 3 | +0.75 | +0.28 | −0.02 | +0.32 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Smith D | 12:50 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.21 | +0.47 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 12:08 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.18 | +0.32 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 20:48 | 2 | +0.39 | +0.24 | −0.42 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 15:43 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.21 | +0.22 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 18:02 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.30 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Damon Severson D | 27:00 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.27 | +0.30 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 23:02 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Geertsen L | 2:55 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 17:20 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 15:17 | −0.05 | +0.23 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 12:40 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 11:39 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 19:25 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 18:55 | 1 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.12 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Ryan Graves D | 19:16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 13:11 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 18:39 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.07 | −0.29 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Daws G | 59:29 | −0.62 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.