TOR beat CBJ 5–4. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 4.5 to 3.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alexander Kerfoot scored at 4:19 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 48% to 75%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:06 | TOR | Ilya Mikheyev from Pierre Engvall, David Kampf | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:01 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Michael Bunting, Timothy Liljegren | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 17:06 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Mitch Marner, TJ Brodie | 3–0 | 79% → 92% |
| P2 1:45 | CBJ | Sean Kuraly from Max Domi | 3–1 | 7% → 19% |
| P2 18:49 | CBJ | Oliver Bjorkstrand from Gustav Nyquist, Andrew Peeke | 3–2 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 2:28 | CBJ | Jack RoslovicPP from Max Domi, Gustav Nyquist | 3–3 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 4:19 | TOR | Alexander Kerfoot from Jason Spezza, Wayne Simmonds | 4–3 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 11:21 | TOR | Michael Bunting from Auston Matthews, TJ Brodie | 5–3 | 82% → 96% |
| P3 19:12 | CBJ | Patrik LainePP from Zach Werenski, Jakub Voracek | 5–4 | 0% → 4% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:55 | 1 | +0.94 | −0.03 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 20:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.07 | +0.54 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 13:23 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.04 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 14:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.09 | +0.56 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 15:58 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.40 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:07 | +0.15 | +0.20 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 18:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.12 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Wayne Simmonds R | 9:05 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 10:47 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 15:12 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jason Spezza C | 10:24 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 16:53 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 16:57 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 18:07 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 22:25 | −0.22 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 25:06 | 2 | −0.25 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:38 | −0.40 | −0.11 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 16:52 | −0.78 | +0.08 | −0.53 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 60:00 | −0.48 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Roslovic C | 15:47 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.16 | +0.41 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 19:25 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.03 | +0.46 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jakub Voracek R | 20:59 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 20:32 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.22 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Laine L | 18:56 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.12 | +0.43 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 16:18 | +0.18 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 12:42 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Carlsson D | 9:35 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 18:58 | 2 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 19:55 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 22:52 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 6:50 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 21:12 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 28:00 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 15:12 | 2 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.31 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dean Kukan D | 18:49 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 6:51 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 5:50 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 57:17 | −1.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.