ARI beat OTT 8–5. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Lawson Crouse scored on the power play at 6:57 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 53% to 81%. Matt Murray allowed 4.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:10 |  ARI | Nick SchmaltzPP from Shayne Gostisbehere | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 13:53 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Shayne Gostisbehere, Nick Schmaltz | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 2:50 | ARI | Nick Schmaltz unassisted | 0–3 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 12:35 | ARI | Matias Maccelli from Phil Kessel, Shayne Gostisbehere | 0–4 | 97% → 99% |
| P2 13:54 |  OTT | Parker Kelly from Thomas Chabot, Nikita Zaitsev | 1–4 | 0% → 3% |
| P2 15:11 | OTT | Josh NorrisPP from Thomas Chabot, Tim Stützle | 2–4 | 3% → 10% |
| P2 16:06 | OTT | Parker Kelly from Connor Brown, Thomas Chabot | 3–4 | 10% → 24% |
| P3 0:56 | OTT | Alex Formenton from Tim Stützle, Adam Gaudette | 4–4 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 1:53 | OTT | Nick Paul from Nick Holden, Zachary Sanford | 5–4 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 4:07 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Nick Schmaltz | 5–5 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 6:57 | ARI | Lawson CrousePP from Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller | 5–6 | 53% → 81% |
| P3 14:53 | ARI | Shayne Gostisbehere from Nick Schmaltz, Dysin Mayo | 5–7 | 88% → 99% |
| P3 16:26 | ARI | Dysin Mayo from Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz | 5–8 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Kelly C | 12:07 | 2 | +1.76 | −0.08 | +1.67 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 17:13 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.77 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Alex Formenton L | 15:46 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.13 | +0.68 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 16:21 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.15 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Dylan Gambrell C | 8:38 | +0.08 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 10:36 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 27:05 | 3 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin White C | 14:38 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 22:00 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Sanford L | 12:52 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 18:37 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.16 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Erik Brannstrom D | 18:29 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 8:58 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 19:33 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Artem Zub D | 19:23 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 12:39 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.09 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:51 | −0.48 | +0.09 | −0.57 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 21:26 | 1 | −0.71 | +0.00 | −0.68 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 57:56 | −4.55 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 22:03 | 2 | 2 | +1.36 | +0.08 | +1.28 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:19 | 2 | 5 | +1.27 | +0.16 | +1.11 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 20:12 | 1 | 3 | +1.13 | +0.12 | +0.83 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Lawson Crouse L | 16:10 | 1 | +0.94 | −0.03 | +0.80 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dysin Mayo D | 18:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.07 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matias Maccelli L | 11:19 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.11 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 20:07 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 14:42 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 13:55 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 16:20 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 20:38 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 15:26 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 13:48 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 21:59 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 10:08 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 14:06 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 13:06 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 14:10 | −0.39 | +0.03 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.10 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:00 | −0.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.