DAL beat WPG 4–3 in overtime. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 5.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jason Robertson scored at 4:30 of overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Braden Holtby saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:23 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Ryan Suter, Joe Pavelski | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 13:38 | WPG | Paul StastnyPP from Andrew Copp, Nikolaj Ehlers | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 19:09 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Thomas Harley | 2–1 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 1:21 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Evgeny Svechnikov, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 12:19 | WPG | Paul Stastny from Blake Wheeler, Dylan DeMelo | 2–3 | 51% → 85% |
| P3 15:28 | DAL | Denis Gurianov from Jamie Benn, Ryan Suter | 3–3 | 11% → 49% |
| OT 4:30 | DAL | Jason Robertson unassisted | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson L | 19:47 | 3 | +1.84 | −0.17 | +1.81 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 13:06 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.29 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 16:15 | +0.14 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 25:14 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Radulov R | 9:37 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 7:55 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Raffl L | 15:32 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 7:15 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 13:39 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 18:32 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Riley Tufte L | 7:46 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 25:59 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Peterson C | 10:17 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 21:02 | −0.34 | −0.42 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 26:41 | −0.39 | −0.07 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 24:31 | −0.67 | −0.54 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 17:22 | 1 | −0.75 | −0.32 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 19:01 | 1 | −1.16 | −0.04 | −0.95 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 64:30 | +1.21 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Stastny C | 15:31 | 2 | +1.64 | +0.13 | +1.48 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 31:47 | +0.40 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 16:08 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.44 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 19:01 | +0.28 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 27:53 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.17 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 23:15 | +0.18 | +0.24 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 23:35 | +0.14 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 25:12 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.22 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Blake Wheeler R | 22:13 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 4:03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 5:43 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Toninato C | 5:34 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 18:15 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 14:34 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.15 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kristian Vesalainen L | 4:08 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 15:32 | −0.20 | +0.24 | −0.51 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.09 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 17:25 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.06 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:04 | 1 | −0.69 | +0.19 | −0.71 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 64:07 | −0.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.