MTL beat CGY 5–4 in overtime. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 4.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ben Chiarot scored at 1:03 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:06 | CGY | Blake Coleman from Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 19:34 | MTL | Jeff Petry from Nick Suzuki, Artturi Lehkonen | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 12:08 | CGY | Johnny Gaudreau unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 15:40 | CGY | Andrew MangiapaneSH from Tyler Toffoli, Jacob Markstrom | 1–3 | 75% → 90% |
| P2 17:44 | MTL | Nick SuzukiPP from Mike Hoffman, Cole Caufield | 2–3 | 12% → 25% |
| P3 4:38 | MTL | Ben Chiarot from Mike Hoffman, Nick Suzuki | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 17:15 | MTL | Mike Hoffman from Laurent Dauphin, Ben Chiarot | 4–3 | 49% → 91% |
| P3 19:32 | CGY | Elias LindholmPP from Andrew Mangiapane, Rasmus Andersson | 4–4 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 1:03 | MTL | Ben Chiarot from Rem Pitlick, Mike Hoffman | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Chiarot D | 24:49 | 2 | 1 | +1.59 | +0.01 | +1.58 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mike Hoffman C | 17:20 | 1 | 3 | +1.00 | +0.20 | +0.77 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jeff Petry D | 22:39 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.36 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 23:51 | 1 | 2 | +0.31 | +0.06 | +0.25 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jake Evans C | 7:49 | +0.24 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wideman D | 11:56 | +0.07 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 8:32 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 5:40 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kale Clague D | 10:58 | −0.18 | +0.16 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 13:26 | −0.22 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 18:36 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 20:10 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 20:11 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.08 | −0.44 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 14:37 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 17:42 | −0.40 | −0.19 | −0.56 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 21:39 | −0.50 | −0.48 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rem Pitlick C | 19:19 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.33 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Laurent Dauphin C | 17:58 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.28 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hammond G | 61:00 | +0.26 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 16:01 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.31 | +0.61 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 16:38 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.22 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:01 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.22 | +0.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 17:11 | 1 | 2 | +0.55 | +0.38 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:10 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.34 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Ritchie R | 8:11 | +0.18 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:25 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.37 | −0.02 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 23:19 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 16:57 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 13:43 | −0.11 | +0.42 | −0.47 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 18:56 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 8:39 | −0.18 | +0.34 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Kylington D | 16:15 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 15:47 | −0.21 | +0.36 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 11:59 | −0.24 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 19:23 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:08 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 11:54 | −0.39 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:00 | −1.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.