SJS beat SEA 3–1. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Scott Reedy scored at 7:15 of the second, moving SJS’s win probability from 53% to 73%. James Reimer saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:19 | SJS | Ryan Dzingel from Logan Couture, Noah Gregor | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 17:28 |  SEA | Morgan Geekie from Ryan Donato, Austin Czarnik | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 7:15 | SJS | Scott Reedy from Jasper Weatherby | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 14:37 | SJS | Jonah Gadjovich from Jasper Weatherby, Brent Burns | 1–3 | 88% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Geekie C | 11:02 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.05 | +0.78 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 19:07 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 19:11 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 14:33 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Czarnik C | 6:46 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Sheahan C | 13:55 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 20:11 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 13:21 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 17:49 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 14:37 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:27 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 9:07 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:45 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 20:43 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.25 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 17:49 | −0.27 | +0.05 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 22:03 | −0.35 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 17:12 | −0.45 | +0.06 | −0.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 17:34 | −0.55 | +0.00 | −0.53 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 56:48 | −0.79 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 7:11 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.03 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Reedy C | 11:25 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.07 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Dzingel C | 17:27 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.08 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:05 | +0.25 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Jasper Weatherby C | 7:32 | 2 | +0.22 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 19:25 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 18:13 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 9:33 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 25:56 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 18:23 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 13:20 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Meloche D | 18:58 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 15:14 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 13:39 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 18:31 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 20:33 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.13 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Merkley D | 19:01 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 21:34 | −0.74 | −0.03 | −0.72 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:00 | +2.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.