EDM beat FLA 4–3. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 5.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Leon Draisaitl scored on the power play at 10:04 of the second, moving EDM’s win probability from 48% to 68%. Mikko Koskinen saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:14 | EDM | Derek Ryan from Warren Foegele, Devin Shore | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 11:50 | FLA | Anton Lundell from Frank Vatrano, Sam Reinhart | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 16:38 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Anthony Duclair, Aaron Ekblad | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 7:29 | EDM | Derek Ryan from Ryan McLeod, Markus Niemelainen | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 10:04 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie | 3–2 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 19:16 | EDM | Derek Ryan from Evander Kane, Connor McDavid | 4–2 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 15:51 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Jonathan Huberdeau, Anthony Duclair | 4–3 | 1% → 12% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Ryan C | 13:50 | 3 | +2.35 | −0.10 | +2.41 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 22:00 | +0.16 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 22:09 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.16 | +0.66 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.37 | −0.04 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 7:12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 15:12 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 3:38 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 20:14 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Niemelainen D | 13:59 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 22:50 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Benson L | 6:20 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Lagesson D | 11:20 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 12:28 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 18:51 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 22:27 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 28:28 | −0.33 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 20:14 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 12:21 | −0.34 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 20:25 | 2 | −0.68 | −0.07 | −0.47 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mikko Koskinen G | 60:00 | +2.17 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Lundell C | 15:26 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.18 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 25:01 | 2 | +0.39 | +0.08 | +0.30 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Lucas Carlsson D | 8:38 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 28:23 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 6:47 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 22:47 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lomberg L | 6:43 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 16:18 | +0.02 | +0.15 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 19:48 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 15:56 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 7:13 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:15 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 17:15 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 12:22 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 18:57 | 2 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.36 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 19:13 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.33 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 25:03 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 18:54 | −0.71 | +0.10 | −0.81 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 56:21 | −1.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.