CHI beat NJD 8–5. Expected goals were close to even (NJD 2.8, CHI 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kirby Dach scored at 14:04 of the third, moving CHI’s win probability from 51% to 87%. Jon Gillies allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:34 |  CHI | Brandon Hagel unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 9:41 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Ryan Graves | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 18:55 | NJD | Yegor Sharangovich from Jack Hughes, Jonas Siegenthaler | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 1:34 | CHI | Patrick KanePP from Alex DeBrincat, Seth Jones | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 11:24 | CHI | Patrick KanePP from Seth Jones, Alex DeBrincat | 2–3 | 54% → 74% |
| P2 14:09 | CHI | Brandon HagelPP from Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat | 2–4 | 76% → 90% |
| P2 17:43 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Damon Severson, Jonas Siegenthaler | 3–4 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 8:36 | NJD | Jonas Siegenthaler from Tomas Tatar, Dougie Hamilton | 4–4 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 14:04 | CHI | Kirby Dach from Connor Murphy, Caleb Jones | 4–5 | 51% → 87% |
| P3 14:45 | CHI | Ryan Carpenter from MacKenzie Entwistle, Seth Jones | 4–6 | 88% → 98% |
| P3 15:45 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Damon Severson, Jack Hughes | 5–6 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 18:37 | CHI | Patrick KaneEN unassisted | 5–7 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 19:32 | CHI | Brandon HagelEN from Sam Lafferty, Caleb Jones | 5–8 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:25 | 2 | +1.40 | −0.09 | +1.47 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 22:08 | 1 | 2 | +0.96 | +0.09 | +0.87 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Hughes C | 19:23 | 1 | 2 | +0.75 | −0.14 | +0.47 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.06 |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 18:35 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.00 | +0.65 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Andreas Johnsson L | 13:07 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 8:54 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 17:02 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 16:22 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Smith D | 14:01 | −0.15 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 12:04 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 22:59 | 2 | −0.18 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 18:45 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:19 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 8:45 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 20:43 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 10:13 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 19:10 | −0.42 | −0.17 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 14:03 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.08 | −0.53 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Gillies G | 58:33 | −2.69 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kane R | 21:55 | 3 | 1 | +1.51 | +0.01 | +1.44 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:38 | 3 | +1.39 | +0.01 | +1.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 13:05 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.07 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 17:14 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.03 | +0.70 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 22:18 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 12:43 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Regula D | 15:19 | +0.15 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 26:14 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Borgstrom C | 11:22 | +0.08 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 8:34 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 9:22 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 9:34 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 15:35 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 10:45 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Galvas D | 16:54 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 24:57 | 3 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 19:17 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 21:14 | 3 | −0.36 | +0.05 | −0.62 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 60:00 | −1.93 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.