CGY beat DAL 4–3. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Oliver Kylington scored at 18:13 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 93%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:54 | CGY | Trevor Lewis from Adam Ruzicka, Milan Lucic | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:26 | DAL | Joel Hanley from Riley Damiani, Tanner Kero | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 18:12 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Esa Lindell, Miro Heiskanen | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 11:20 | DAL | Jamie Benn from Tyler Seguin, Denis Gurianov | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P3 14:36 | CGY | Andrew Mangiapane from Blake Coleman, Noah Hanifin | 2–3 | 2% → 12% |
| P3 15:13 | CGY | Johnny Gaudreau from Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm | 3–3 | 11% → 49% |
| P3 18:13 | CGY | Oliver Kylington from Rasmus Andersson, Elias Lindholm | 4–3 | 48% → 93% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lewis C | 12:57 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.11 | +0.68 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Oliver Kylington D | 18:36 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.16 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:26 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.18 | +0.36 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 15:43 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.11 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Dillon Dube C | 11:49 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 12:18 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 21:05 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.23 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 20:27 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 22:08 | +0.00 | +0.24 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 11:35 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 19:39 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Ritchie R | 9:17 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 16:06 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 17:36 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.12 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 21:02 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:38 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 16:39 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Ruzicka C | 11:34 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 20:00 | +0.37 |
| Jacob Markstrom G | 39:59 | −0.70 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson L | 20:05 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.02 | +0.71 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 10:13 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.05 | +0.92 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 18:58 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.13 | +0.45 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 24:31 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Peterson C | 9:21 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 23:59 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 11:23 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Riley Damiani C | 4:10 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 17:11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 21:47 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 16:11 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Kero C | 7:21 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 20:06 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 19:23 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 19:18 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 19:49 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.17 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Radulov R | 12:08 | −0.37 | −0.27 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 21:28 | −0.59 | −0.04 | −0.64 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 58:38 | −0.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.