MTL beat STL 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (STL 2.4, MTL 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Cole Caufield scored on the power play at 19:50 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 3% to 51%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:13 | MTL | Paul Byron from Artturi Lehkonen, Jeff Petry | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 18:26 |  STL | Robert ThomasSH from Pavel Buchnevich | 1–1 | 28% → 46% |
| P3 18:41 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Vladimir Tarasenko, Justin Faulk | 2–1 | 50% → 94% |
| P3 19:50 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Chris Wideman, Mike Hoffman | 2–2 | 3% → 51% |
| OT 2:22 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Jeff Petry | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 16:10 | 1 | 1 | +1.21 | +0.21 | +0.80 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Robert Thomas C | 19:35 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.12 | +0.27 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 15:53 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 24:32 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 5:18 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 24:31 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 11:32 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 10:35 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Klim Kostin C | 5:43 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:15 | −0.05 | +0.15 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 14:19 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| David Perron L | 15:11 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 26:54 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 18:58 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.12 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:19 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 18:44 | −0.31 | −0.26 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 20:07 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 11:02 | −0.33 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 61:50 | −0.45 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 21:04 | 2 | +1.69 | −0.07 | +1.57 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Byron L | 15:10 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.07 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 24:44 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:48 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Rem Pitlick C | 13:33 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 14:53 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Wideman D | 14:57 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 15:53 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Laurent Dauphin C | 11:50 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 20:28 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 9:51 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kale Clague D | 11:43 | −0.18 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Schueneman D | 21:24 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 24:17 | 2 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 15:51 | −0.31 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 10:24 | −0.36 | −0.10 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 20:15 | −0.37 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 17:57 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.14 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 61:26 | +0.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.