LAK beat PIT 4–3. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Trevor Moore scored at 13:21 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 49% to 84%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:17 | LAK | Alex Iafallo from Anze Kopitar | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 8:29 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 10:35 | LAK | Trevor Moore from Jacob Moverare | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 13:49 | LAK | Drew Doughty from Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe | 3–1 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 6:17 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Kris Letang | 3–2 | 7% → 23% |
| P3 10:02 | PIT | Bryan RustPP from Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel | 3–3 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 13:21 | LAK | Trevor Moore from Blake Lizotte | 4–3 | 49% → 84% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Moore L | 16:14 | 2 | +1.78 | +0.09 | +1.51 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 16:28 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.04 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 26:33 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 17:40 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Strand D | 15:16 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 17:44 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Blake Lizotte C | 12:18 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dustin Brown R | 11:31 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 11:27 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 13:52 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 18:50 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.10 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 20:40 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Moverare D | 18:59 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 18:32 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 18:34 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 11:00 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 15:57 | −0.57 | −0.02 | −0.56 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 13:11 | −0.61 | −0.05 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Petersen G | 59:48 | −0.26 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Rust R | 18:53 | 2 | +1.65 | +0.31 | +1.37 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:52 | 1 | 1 | +1.14 | +0.24 | +0.75 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Kris Letang D | 23:08 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 8:03 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 15:11 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Zohorna L | 14:32 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 7:23 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 17:48 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 14:15 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 16:25 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 18:44 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 15:32 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 19:59 | −0.24 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 9:16 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 17:57 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 21:27 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.33 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 16:58 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.20 | −0.65 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:59 | 1 | −0.64 | +0.24 | −0.69 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 59:38 | −0.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.