NYR beat SEA 3–2. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: K'Andre Miller scored at 19:26 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Igor Shesterkin saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:46 |  NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 4:23 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière from Mika Zibanejad, Zac Jones | 0–2 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 7:17 | SEA | Jared McCann from Jordan Eberle, Marcus Johansson | 1–2 | 12% → 27% |
| P3 18:52 | SEA | Yanni GourdePP from Mark Giordano, Jared McCann | 2–2 | 5% → 50% |
| P3 19:26 | NYR | K'Andre Miller from Mika Zibanejad | 2–3 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCann L | 17:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.08 | +0.79 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.06 |
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:43 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.04 | +0.65 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 20:56 | +0.22 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 18:02 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 14:40 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 15:47 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 8:28 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 15:54 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 20:44 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 24:05 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Karson Kuhlman C | 2:22 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 18:35 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 20:05 | −0.19 | +0.11 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 14:56 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:51 | −0.38 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 9:54 | −0.42 | +0.16 | −0.60 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 15:09 | −0.43 | +0.19 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 19:31 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.06 | −0.50 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 58:57 | −1.08 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 12:46 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.03 | +0.66 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 19:08 | 1 | 2 | +0.70 | +0.23 | +0.61 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 |
| K'Andre Miller D | 23:46 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.22 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 19:58 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 17:14 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 21:56 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 13:05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Greg McKegg C | 9:58 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 6:31 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 7:35 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 17:04 | −0.06 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Zac Jones D | 12:25 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 24:58 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 21:52 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Libor Hajek D | 11:48 | −0.32 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 16:49 | −0.33 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 23:17 | −0.36 | +0.25 | −0.61 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 9:53 | −0.43 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +1.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.