MIN beat NYI 4–3. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 5.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brandon Duhaime scored at 3:36 of the first, moving MIN’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Kaapo Kahkonen saved 4.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:36 | MIN | Brandon Duhaime from Joel Eriksson Ek, Mathew Dumba | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 4:39 | MIN | Joel Eriksson EkPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 13:56 | NYI | Brock Nelson from Robin Salo, Adam Pelech | 2–1 | 22% → 36% |
| P2 2:39 | MIN | Matt Boldy from Victor Rask, Kevin Fiala | 3–1 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 4:03 | NYI | Ross Johnston unassisted | 3–2 | 18% → 33% |
| P3 11:27 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Mathew Dumba, Jonas Brodin | 4–2 | 82% → 96% |
| P3 16:00 | NYI | Oliver WahlstromPP from Anders Lee, Noah Dobson | 4–3 | 1% → 11% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 17:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.16 | +0.30 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matt Boldy L | 13:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.07 | +0.32 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 14:38 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.10 | +0.36 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Victor Rask C | 8:56 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 17:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.33 | +0.19 | +0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Kevin Fiala L | 16:31 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Rau C | 8:19 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 8:57 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 11:23 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 23:48 | 2 | −0.16 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 12:58 | −0.19 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 19:00 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 17:19 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 27:52 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.37 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 23:14 | −0.36 | −0.41 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 14:04 | −0.38 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:14 | −0.58 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 19:03 | −0.60 | −0.33 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 60:00 | +4.39 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Nelson C | 18:30 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.43 | +0.22 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Johnston L | 11:38 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.01 | +0.38 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 20:05 | +0.24 | +0.48 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 24:32 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.57 | −0.24 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 18:35 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.52 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Robin Salo D | 12:48 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 24:04 | +0.19 | +0.54 | −0.38 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 13:36 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.14 | +0.25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andy Greene D | 15:01 | +0.14 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 20:18 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 17:46 | +0.03 | +0.42 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 21:31 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zdeno Chara D | 18:05 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 10:39 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 8:57 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 14:48 | −0.13 | +0.12 | −0.22 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 12:52 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 16:29 | −0.18 | +0.10 | −0.22 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 57:13 | −1.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.