TOR beat DET 7–4. Expected goals were close to even (TOR 3.3, DET 3.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Rasmus Sandin scored at 17:09 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 49% to 91%. Alex Nedeljkovic allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:15 |  DET | Dylan Larkin from Vladislav Namestnikov | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 16:28 | TOR | Pierre Engvall from Morgan Rielly, Jason Spezza | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 1:16 | DET | Vladislav Namestnikov from Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 2:11 | DET | Tyler Bertuzzi from Robby Fabbri, Moritz Seider | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 12:07 | TOR | Michael Bunting from Justin Holl, David Kampf | 2–3 | 11% → 26% |
| P2 15:54 | DET | Dylan LarkinPP from Robby Fabbri, Lucas Raymond | 2–4 | 76% → 90% |
| P3 9:28 | TOR | Michael Bunting from Auston Matthews, Justin Holl | 3–4 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 11:58 | TOR | Michael Bunting from Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews | 4–4 | 15% → 48% |
| P3 17:09 | TOR | Rasmus Sandin from John Tavares, Alexander Kerfoot | 5–4 | 49% → 91% |
| P3 18:46 | TOR | Mitch MarnerEN from Alexander Kerfoot, Morgan Rielly | 6–4 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 19:49 | TOR | John TavaresEN from David Kampf | 7–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bunting L | 17:27 | 3 | +1.78 | +0.05 | +1.74 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 21:18 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.15 | +0.79 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 10:55 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.17 | +0.46 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 21:45 | 2 | +0.36 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 18:37 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:41 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Dermott D | 13:17 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 9:18 | −0.01 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 10:36 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.17 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 13:56 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:47 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 22:54 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 12:24 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 22:26 | 2 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 18:58 | 1 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.21 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ondrej Kase R | 13:44 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 12:44 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 16:12 | 1 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.06 | −0.54 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 59:51 | −0.47 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin C | 19:41 | 2 | 1 | +1.27 | −0.05 | +1.38 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 15:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 18:29 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.52 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 23:42 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Givani Smith R | 6:33 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 18:04 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 20:42 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 18:28 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 11:54 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 13:37 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 20:52 | −0.21 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 16:24 | −0.21 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 13:11 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 13:42 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 16:43 | 2 | −0.40 | +0.13 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 19:00 | 1 | −0.57 | +0.00 | −0.57 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pius Suter C | 15:32 | −0.58 | +0.08 | −0.65 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 14:17 | −0.65 | −0.13 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 59:02 | −1.42 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.