TOR beat ANA 4–3 in a shootout. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 5.0 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Vinni Lettieri scored at 13:23 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 14% to 49%. Jack Campbell allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:46 | ANA | Sam Steel unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 17:18 | TOR | Mitch MarnerPP from Morgan Rielly, William Nylander | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 19:21 | TOR | William NylanderPP from John Tavares, Auston Matthews | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 16:08 | TOR | John TavaresPP from Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews | 1–3 | 80% → 91% |
| P2 17:21 | ANA | Jakob Silfverberg from Buddy Robinson, Sam Carrick | 2–3 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 13:23 | ANA | Vinni Lettieri from Kevin Shattenkirk, Sam Steel | 3–3 | 14% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinni Lettieri C | 13:04 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.02 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Trevor Zegras C | 17:35 | +0.70 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | +0.70 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 11:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.08 | +0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 17:10 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.46 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Maxime Comtois L | 14:58 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 10:08 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Buddy Robinson R | 11:18 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 12:38 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 11:01 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Greg Pateryn D | 12:32 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 28:16 | −0.34 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 25:53 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 16:18 | −0.48 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 23:27 | −0.50 | −0.24 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 22:51 | −0.54 | −0.51 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 22:23 | −0.64 | −0.50 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 20:05 | −0.72 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:34 | −0.78 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.45 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 64:48 | +1.10 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares C | 20:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.51 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 |
| Jason Spezza C | 6:56 | +0.65 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.70 | ||
| William Nylander R | 20:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.65 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.14 |
| Mitch Marner R | 22:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.27 | +0.10 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| TJ Brodie D | 27:25 | +0.44 | +0.45 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:16 | +0.31 | +0.31 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 23:02 | 2 | +0.31 | +0.33 | −1.15 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.08 | +0.83 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 17:08 | +0.28 | +0.30 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 27:58 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 21:53 | +0.11 | +0.21 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 22:55 | +0.10 | +0.27 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 14:49 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 16:00 | −0.06 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Kase R | 14:54 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 16:08 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 6:50 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 9:16 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 5:12 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 64:58 | −1.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.