EDM beat VAN 3–2 in overtime. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 5.8 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Connor McDavid scored at 4:36 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Spencer Martin saved 2.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 14:26 | VAN | Elias Pettersson unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 17:13 | VAN | Tyler MotteSH from J.T. Miller | 0–2 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 6:33 | EDM | Ryan McLeod from Kris Russell, Slater Koekkoek | 1–2 | 5% → 20% |
| P3 10:24 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid | 2–2 | 17% → 48% |
| OT 4:36 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Darnell Nurse | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 27:28 | 1 | 1 | +1.62 | +0.84 | +0.20 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.37 | +0.02 |
| Ryan McLeod C | 9:26 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.00 | +0.89 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 26:15 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.95 | −0.60 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 26:53 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.59 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 22:56 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.89 | −0.67 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Duncan Keith D | 22:39 | +0.26 | +0.53 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 26:54 | +0.15 | +0.53 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 19:58 | +0.07 | +0.17 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 8:34 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 12:21 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sceviour C | 9:20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 9:20 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Slater Koekkoek D | 10:15 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Perlini L | 9:31 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 21:53 | −0.10 | +0.39 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 11:38 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 17:36 | −0.29 | +0.06 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 17:07 | −0.49 | +0.41 | −0.89 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mikko Koskinen G | 64:20 | +0.14 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson C | 22:14 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.49 | +0.84 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Dowling C | 7:28 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 7:32 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 7:02 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 21:25 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.50 | +0.43 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tucker Poolman D | 20:15 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 15:18 | −0.15 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 9:59 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 15:36 | −0.27 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 12:22 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Highmore C | 16:07 | −0.32 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 23:20 | −0.38 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 10:40 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juho Lammikko C | 17:40 | −0.62 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 25:31 | −0.80 | −0.73 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 21:04 | −0.80 | −0.44 | −0.36 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 27:58 | −0.93 | −0.91 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 24:38 | 1 | −1.06 | −0.70 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Martin G | 64:15 | +2.60 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.