CAR beat VGK 4–3 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.4 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sebastian Aho scored at 3:49 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:44 |  CAR | Nino Niederreiter from Jesper Fast, Jordan Staal | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 5:41 | CAR | Vincent Trocheck from Andrei Svechnikov, Derek Stepan | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 18:15 |  VGK | Nolan Patrick from Keegan Kolesar | 1–2 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 8:32 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Tony DeAngelo, Teuvo Teravainen | 1–3 | 83% → 96% |
| P3 13:08 | VGK | Brett Howden from Shea Theodore, Nolan Patrick | 2–3 | 2% → 14% |
| P3 17:30 | VGK | Nicolas Hague from William Carrier, Mattias Janmark | 3–3 | 7% → 49% |
| OT 3:49 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from Andrei Svechnikov | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Hague D | 18:23 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.06 | +0.91 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 11:34 | 1 | +0.93 | −0.00 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Nolan Patrick C | 12:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.09 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Michael Amadio R | 11:24 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 22:42 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 13:29 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 15:25 | −0.19 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 17:45 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 16:48 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 16:33 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 19:16 | −0.30 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 22:21 | −0.31 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 13:12 | −0.31 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 13:57 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 17:58 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| William Carrier L | 12:27 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.17 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 21:11 | −0.52 | −0.34 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 26:38 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.25 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 63:49 | −0.04 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:40 | 2 | +1.17 | +0.16 | +1.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 18:48 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.10 | +0.78 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 15:13 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.09 | +0.59 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 24:35 | +0.33 | +0.33 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 11:34 | +0.24 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:55 | +0.22 | +0.24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 21:07 | +0.20 | +0.24 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 13:14 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 17:56 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 13:10 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 12:37 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 20:26 | −0.10 | +0.15 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 22:19 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 16:23 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.13 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 13:55 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 8:55 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 19:31 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.10 | −0.38 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 16:07 | 2 | −0.52 | +0.47 | −1.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 63:49 | −0.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.