PIT beat WPG 3–2 in a shootout. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 3.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jeff Carter scored at 7:04 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 23% to 52%. Tristan Jarry saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:28 | WPG | Blake Wheeler from Mark Scheifele, Brenden Dillon | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 8:11 | WPG | Kyle ConnorPP from Paul Stastny, Blake Wheeler | 2–0 | 69% → 83% |
| P3 6:55 | PIT | Kasperi Kapanen from Evgeni Malkin, Danton Heinen | 2–1 | 6% → 23% |
| P3 7:04 | PIT | Jeff Carter unassisted | 2–2 | 23% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Wheeler R | 15:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.26 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Neal Pionk D | 26:20 | +0.12 | +0.24 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 20:02 | +0.08 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 23:00 | +0.06 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Toninato C | 10:01 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Austin Poganski R | 11:26 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 8:17 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 12:56 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 15:16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 13:42 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 16:31 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 23:42 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 27:25 | −0.21 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 24:55 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.30 | |
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 10:54 | −0.27 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kristian Vesalainen L | 8:20 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 17:34 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.22 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.36 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 20:50 | −0.99 | −0.18 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.09 | −0.45 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 65:00 | +1.27 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Carter C | 19:33 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.03 | +0.90 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 23:17 | +0.61 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.83 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 18:07 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.13 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 20:08 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 17:17 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 23:07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 1:42 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 12:19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 13:32 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 12:02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 13:32 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 9:13 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 21:12 | −0.21 | +0.14 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 21:44 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.09 | −0.30 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 17:05 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 18:44 | −0.53 | −0.06 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 28:00 | −0.61 | −0.19 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.13 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 23:18 | −0.88 | −0.23 | −0.51 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 65:00 | +2.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.