NJD beat CAR 7–4. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jesper Bratt scored at 18:19 of the second, moving NJD’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Jack LaFontaine allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:20 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Vincent Trocheck, Brendan Smith | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 5:44 | CAR | Ian Cole from Martin Necas, Andrei Svechnikov | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 17:26 | NJD | Nathan Bastian from Ryan Graves, Janne Kuokkanen | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P1 19:06 | NJD | Nathan Bastian from Ryan Graves, Michael McLeod | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 3:25 | CAR | Josh Leivo from Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Tony DeAngelo | 3–2 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 8:47 | NJD | Michael McLeod from Andreas Johnsson, P.K. Subban | 3–3 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 11:16 | NJD | Andreas Johnsson from Dawson Mercer, Pavel Zacha | 3–4 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 15:34 | CAR | Brady Skjei from Derek Stepan, Josh Leivo | 4–4 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 18:19 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Yegor Sharangovich, Ryan Graves | 4–5 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 12:51 | NJD | Jack HughesPP from Damon Severson, Nico Hischier | 4–6 | 87% → 98% |
| P3 13:55 | NJD | Pavel Zacha from Dawson Mercer, Andreas Johnsson | 4–7 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Skjei D | 22:27 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.01 | +0.84 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.13 | +0.81 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Leivo L | 9:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.05 | +0.78 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Ian Cole D | 13:42 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.25 | +0.89 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 16:05 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 23:16 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 16:54 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 17:33 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 23:13 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:56 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 12:39 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 15:40 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 12:04 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 13:37 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 15:39 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 14:14 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 16:09 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.16 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 21:43 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.08 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack LaFontaine G | 60:00 | −2.84 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Bastian R | 16:21 | 2 | +1.48 | +0.04 | +1.46 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 14:28 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.18 | +0.72 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 16:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.21 | +0.49 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Pavel Zacha C | 12:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.05 | +0.74 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Andreas Johnsson L | 12:54 | 1 | 2 | +0.55 | +0.13 | +0.42 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Hughes C | 15:32 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.19 | +0.42 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 14:58 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 23:48 | +0.29 | +0.29 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 21:42 | 3 | +0.25 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| P.K. Subban D | 23:46 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Jaros D | 10:16 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton White D | 11:11 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 26:34 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 18:13 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 13:46 | 2 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.40 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 15:07 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 15:59 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 14:41 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.16 | −0.49 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Gillies G | 59:54 | −1.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.