SEA beat SJS 3–2. SEA lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Carson Soucy scored at 8:25 of the second, moving SEA’s win probability from 53% to 73%. Adin Hill allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:38 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Alexander Barabanov | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 4:18 |  SEA | Carson Soucy from Mark Giordano, Mason Appleton | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 8:25 | SEA | Carson Soucy from Alexander Wennberg | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 6:27 | SEA | Calle Jarnkrok from Morgan Geekie, Mark Giordano | 1–3 | 80% → 95% |
| P3 9:37 | SJS | Timo MeierPP from Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl | 2–3 | 4% → 17% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Meier R | 21:22 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.02 | +0.49 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 22:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.04 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Adam Raska R | 7:50 | +0.30 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Merkley D | 13:55 | +0.11 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 11:56 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 25:40 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 20:28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 13:42 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 19:57 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Dahlen C | 14:02 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jasper Weatherby C | 10:07 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jaycob Megna D | 19:27 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 12:47 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 8:50 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 14:47 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 15:10 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 18:58 | 1 | −0.60 | −0.09 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 23:36 | −0.64 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 58:27 | −1.29 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Soucy D | 16:15 | 2 | +1.35 | +0.04 | +1.68 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 16:19 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.09 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 19:10 | 2 | +0.34 | +0.31 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:45 | +0.23 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 17:34 | +0.20 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 8:21 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 28:06 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 14:12 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Karson Kuhlman C | 7:46 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 14:24 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Will Borgen D | 15:43 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 20:39 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 12:32 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 16:49 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 13:37 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 20:16 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 15:18 | −0.40 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 16:38 | −0.42 | −0.03 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 60:00 | +0.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.