DAL beat BUF 5–4. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 4.6 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jason Robertson scored on the power play at 16:28 of the third, moving DAL’s win probability from 51% to 89%. Braden Holtby allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:47 |  BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Anders Bjork, Henri Jokiharju | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:37 | BUF | Jack QuinnPP from Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 16:50 | DAL | Jason RobertsonPP from Joe Pavelski, John Klingberg | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P2 1:09 | BUF | Dylan Cozens from Victor Olofsson, Jack Quinn | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 5:26 | DAL | Roope HintzPP from Jason Robertson, John Klingberg | 2–3 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 11:40 | DAL | Tyler Seguin from Denis Gurianov, John Klingberg | 3–3 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 14:13 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Rasmus Dahlin, Henri Jokiharju | 3–4 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 12:23 | DAL | Tyler SeguinPP from Roope Hintz, John Klingberg | 4–4 | 16% → 49% |
| P3 16:28 | DAL | Jason RobertsonPP from Tyler Seguin, Joe Pavelski | 5–4 | 51% → 89% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Seguin C | 19:24 | 2 | 1 | +1.90 | +0.42 | +1.39 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Jason Robertson L | 19:01 | 2 | 1 | +1.63 | +0.17 | +1.41 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Roope Hintz C | 17:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.18 | +0.40 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.07 |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 27:18 | +0.38 | +0.34 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 16:12 | +0.34 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 26:57 | +0.34 | +0.34 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Peterson C | 8:26 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 21:28 | 4 | +0.14 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 8:01 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 11:28 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 6:19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Raffl L | 15:47 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 18:05 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 15:02 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 16:44 | −0.25 | +0.28 | −0.60 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Riley Damiani C | 8:06 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 22:24 | −0.26 | +0.17 | −0.32 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 17:29 | 1 | −0.84 | +0.26 | −1.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 59:54 | −1.92 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch R | 21:20 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.08 | +0.85 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:10 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.17 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 13:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.23 | +0.67 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 28:05 | 1 | 2 | +0.25 | −0.36 | +0.80 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mark Jankowski L | 12:57 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 3:25 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:33 | −0.11 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 12:50 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 13:13 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 25:50 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Pysyk D | 20:00 | −0.27 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 12:24 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Hagg D | 14:27 | −0.30 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:51 | −0.38 | −0.40 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 12:47 | −0.41 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 16:34 | −0.45 | −0.25 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 12:07 | −0.49 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 21:59 | 1 | −0.93 | −0.25 | −0.57 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 57:58 | −0.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.