NYR beat TOR 6–3. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Strome scored at 10:50 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 84%. Jack Campbell allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:44 | TOR | Ilya Mikheyev from Pierre Engvall | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:30 | TOR | Mitch MarnerPP from William Nylander, John Tavares | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 12:52 | NYR | Ryan Reaves from Greg McKegg, Adam Fox | 2–1 | 22% → 36% |
| P1 17:50 | TOR | Michael Bunting from Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner | 3–1 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 2:58 | NYR | Ryan Reaves from K'Andre Miller, Jacob Trouba | 3–2 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 17:49 | NYR | Adam Fox from Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin | 3–3 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 10:50 | NYR | Ryan Strome from Ryan Lindgren, Artemi Panarin | 3–4 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 15:33 | NYR | Chris Kreider from Jacob Trouba, Mika Zibanejad | 3–5 | 89% → 99% |
| P3 17:36 | NYR | Adam FoxEN from Mika Zibanejad | 3–6 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bunting L | 15:35 | 1 | +1.09 | −0.00 | +0.72 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 23:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.22 | +0.38 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 15:27 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.33 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 27:19 | +0.30 | +0.28 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 17:55 | +0.27 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Biega D | 12:21 | +0.13 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 24:39 | +0.13 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 17:04 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 7:37 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 21:51 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Travis Dermott D | 12:58 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 16:43 | −0.15 | +0.34 | −0.45 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 7:34 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 14:42 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.36 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jason Spezza C | 8:59 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:16 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| William Nylander R | 19:04 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 18:29 | 1 | −0.87 | −0.02 | −0.89 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 58:30 | −2.26 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Reaves R | 12:04 | 2 | +1.25 | −0.10 | +1.55 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 24:41 | 2 | 1 | +0.98 | −0.05 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Strome C | 16:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.14 | +0.54 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 13:07 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 20:43 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 12:24 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 10:05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:37 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 15:52 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 16:09 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.15 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Greg McKegg C | 12:55 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 16:53 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Braden Schneider D | 14:43 | −0.17 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 16:39 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 19:06 | −0.27 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 17:42 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 14:30 | −0.35 | +0.03 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 16:53 | −0.51 | −0.18 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +1.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.