ARI beat NJD 4–1. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Lawson Crouse scored at 11:32 of the second, moving ARI’s win probability from 47% to 69%. Karel Vejmelka saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:09 |  NJD | Nico HischierPP from Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P2 6:50 | ARI | Dysin Mayo from Loui Eriksson, Alex Galchenyuk | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 11:32 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Loui Eriksson, Anton Stralman | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 14:13 | ARI | Travis Boyd from Clayton Keller, Jakob Chychrun | 3–1 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 8:27 | ARI | Johan Larsson from Lawson Crouse, Phil Kessel | 4–1 | 95% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dysin Mayo D | 20:34 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.07 | +0.82 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 18:23 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.13 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 16:11 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.08 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.03 | +0.47 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 16:09 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 21:36 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Nash C | 14:48 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 14:44 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:06 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 14:46 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 11:11 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Andrew Ladd L | 16:39 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 22:34 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 16:39 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 11:45 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 20:20 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 17:28 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 15:14 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +2.33 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier C | 19:37 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.08 | +0.64 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 13:45 | +0.37 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 9:35 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 20:37 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 22:34 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Smith D | 15:23 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Jaros D | 11:37 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 20:40 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 21:04 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 18:46 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 10:52 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 16:47 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 24:06 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 17:06 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 13:27 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 10:38 | −0.43 | +0.07 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:02 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 13:31 | −0.57 | −0.07 | −0.47 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 56:53 | −1.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.