DET beat PHI 6–3. DET also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Pius Suter scored at 6:12 of the second, moving DET’s win probability from 47% to 67%. Carter Hart allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:43 | DET | Dylan LarkinPP from Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:03 |  PHI | Isaac Ratcliffe from Zack MacEwen, Nick Seeler | 1–1 | 38% → 54% |
| P1 6:02 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Filip Hronek, Dylan Larkin | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 6:26 | PHI | Travis Sanheim from Claude Giroux, Oskar Lindblom | 2–2 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 6:12 | DET | Pius Suter from Robby Fabbri, Tyler Bertuzzi | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 11:00 | DET | Robby Fabbri from Pius Suter, Moritz Seider | 4–2 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 11:21 | PHI | Scott Laughton from Travis Konecny, Nick Seeler | 4–3 | 15% → 31% |
| P3 8:46 | DET | Givani Smith from Joe Veleno, Gustav Lindstrom | 5–3 | 79% → 95% |
| P3 19:05 | DET | Vladislav NamestnikovEN from Sam Gagner | 6–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pius Suter C | 17:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.12 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Givani Smith R | 7:58 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.06 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 15:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.12 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Dylan Larkin C | 18:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.20 | +0.80 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 |
| Lucas Raymond L | 16:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.24 | +0.28 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 15:44 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 23:02 | 2 | +0.30 | +0.27 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Staal D | 19:28 | +0.17 | +0.21 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 17:55 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 15:38 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 20:09 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 10:25 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 17:25 | +0.04 | +0.17 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 15:33 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jordan Oesterle D | 18:40 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:51 | −0.15 | +0.27 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 12:00 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 13:42 | −0.33 | +0.32 | −0.65 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 59:57 | −0.75 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Ratcliffe L | 10:53 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.08 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 16:28 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.16 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 19:26 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.26 | +0.85 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 11:25 | 2 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Keith Yandle D | 16:38 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 17:15 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Bunnaman C | 9:48 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 11:05 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 17:43 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gerry Mayhew C | 13:22 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 22:02 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 14:33 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 22:36 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.27 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Oskar Lindblom L | 17:19 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Max Willman C | 13:17 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 24:57 | −0.37 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 16:32 | −0.51 | −0.07 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 23:42 | −0.57 | −0.33 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 56:49 | −1.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.