TOR beat NJD 6–4. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ilya Mikheyev scored short-handed at 16:56 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 49% to 91%. Akira Schmid allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:47 | NJD | Pavel Zacha from Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 6:20 | NJD | Jesper Boqvist from Colton White, Janne Kuokkanen | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 6:33 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Mitch Marner, Timothy Liljegren | 2–1 | 24% → 37% |
| P1 9:10 | NJD | Andreas Johnsson from Dawson Mercer | 3–1 | 63% → 77% |
| P1 15:04 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner | 3–2 | 22% → 35% |
| P2 7:33 | NJD | Nathan Bastian from Ryan Graves, Jesper Boqvist | 4–2 | 68% → 83% |
| P3 4:16 | TOR | Jason Spezza from Ilya Mikheyev, Alexander Kerfoot | 4–3 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 13:28 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Auston Matthews | 4–4 | 16% → 51% |
| P3 16:56 | TOR | Ilya MikheyevSH from Alexander Kerfoot | 4–5 | 49% → 91% |
| P3 19:38 | TOR | Auston MatthewsEN from Morgan Rielly | 4–6 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Boqvist C | 9:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.03 | +0.31 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Andreas Johnsson L | 11:37 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.06 | +0.44 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton White D | 11:02 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 17:27 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.02 | +0.25 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 11:42 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 19:01 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 14:17 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 14:16 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.15 | +0.38 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 25:30 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 16:55 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 20:22 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Ty Smith D | 12:29 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 13:34 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 13:52 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 16:35 | −0.22 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:30 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 18:25 | −0.46 | −0.13 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 29:12 | −0.49 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 59:36 | −1.67 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 21:40 | 3 | 1 | +1.19 | +0.21 | +0.75 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 13:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.25 | +0.33 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mitch Marner R | 23:16 | 1 | 2 | +0.74 | +0.09 | +0.33 | +0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:19 | 2 | +0.52 | +0.22 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 13:07 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Dermott D | 13:07 | +0.28 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 7:47 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.42 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.07 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 17:20 | +0.11 | +0.17 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 21:31 | +0.04 | +0.17 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 6:13 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 19:09 | +0.02 | +0.17 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 27:33 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 15:08 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 18:02 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 10:30 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 21:31 | −0.18 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 16:53 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Ondrej Kase R | 12:48 | −0.31 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 50:49 | +0.77 |
| Jack Campbell G | 9:10 | −2.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.