DET beat BUF 3–2 in overtime. DET also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dylan Larkin scored at 2:07 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:56 | BUF | Henri Jokiharju from Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 9:21 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch | 0–2 | 82% → 96% |
| P3 10:21 |  DET | Vladislav NamestnikovSH from Moritz Seider, Tyler Bertuzzi | 1–2 | 3% → 16% |
| P3 13:28 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Robby Fabbri | 2–2 | 14% → 49% |
| OT 2:07 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Nick Leddy | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin C | 21:26 | 2 | +1.72 | +0.08 | +1.54 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 20:21 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.62 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 17:04 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.11 | +0.50 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 20:43 | +0.32 | +0.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 18:19 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 20:10 | +0.15 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 20:49 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 10:19 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 18:48 | +0.10 | +0.17 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 12:10 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 12:26 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 10:26 | +0.02 | +0.28 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 18:37 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.50 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 22:01 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Givani Smith R | 6:44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 9:08 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 21:02 | −0.33 | +0.30 | −0.66 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 19:48 | −0.37 | −0.08 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 62:07 | +0.70 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henri Jokiharju D | 23:44 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.27 | +0.93 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 15:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.05 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:18 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 10:36 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 12:43 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 13:47 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 18:29 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 19:12 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 17:28 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 12:28 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Hagg D | 16:22 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 17:47 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 20:00 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.16 | −0.58 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:41 | −0.44 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 15:25 | −0.45 | −0.18 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 16:33 | −0.49 | −0.42 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 18:45 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.08 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 15:21 | −0.61 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 62:07 | +0.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.