TOR beat STL 6–5. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ilya Mikheyev scored at 16:45 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 49% to 90%. Jordan Binnington allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:58 |  STL | Ryan O'Reilly from Ivan Barbashev, Oskar Sundqvist | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:43 | TOR | Michael Bunting from Auston Matthews | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 7:32 | TOR | Mitch Marner unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:27 | TOR | John Tavares from Alexander Kerfoot, Morgan Rielly | 3–1 | 63% → 77% |
| P2 3:40 | STL | Ryan O'Reilly from Niko Mikkola | 3–2 | 18% → 34% |
| P2 5:20 | STL | Brandon Saad from Robert Thomas | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 8:18 | TOR | Timothy Liljegren from Travis Dermott, Pierre Engvall | 4–3 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 16:13 | STL | Robert Thomas from Jordan Kyrou, Brandon Saad | 4–4 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 3:25 | STL | Niko Mikkola from Jordan Kyrou, Justin Faulk | 4–5 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 11:24 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly | 5–5 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 16:45 | TOR | Ilya Mikheyev from Pierre Engvall | 6–5 | 49% → 90% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 20:52 | 1 | 1 | +1.19 | +0.13 | +0.79 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 19:37 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.08 | +0.86 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 14:08 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.05 | +0.77 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 14:18 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.09 | +0.53 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 21:59 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.25 | +0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 21:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.08 | +0.31 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| William Nylander R | 22:42 | +0.21 | +0.20 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 17:58 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 22:33 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 15:47 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 10:58 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 28:51 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Spezza C | 7:43 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 19:46 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 15:00 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 7:34 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 6:16 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 12:54 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 59:36 | −2.34 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:48 | 2 | +1.26 | −0.14 | +1.45 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 20:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.22 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Robert Thomas C | 19:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.18 | +0.82 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Brandon Saad L | 19:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.13 | +0.57 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 16:00 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Perunovich D | 14:26 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Neal L | 15:02 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:08 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bozak C | 17:55 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 22:05 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 7:51 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 15:05 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Klim Kostin C | 8:43 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 10:02 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 15:57 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 26:53 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 21:55 | −0.41 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 18:15 | 2 | −0.48 | −0.21 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 57:23 | −2.50 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.