NYR beat PHI 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 1.8, PHI 2.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Chris Kreider scored at 13:30 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 49% to 84%. Carter Hart allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:54 |  NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:45 |  PHI | Oskar Lindblom from Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P3 10:11 | PHI | Cam York unassisted | 1–2 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 10:48 | NYR | Filip Chytil from Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome | 2–2 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 13:30 | NYR | Chris Kreider from Adam Fox, Kaapo Kakko | 3–2 | 49% → 84% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mika Zibanejad C | 21:10 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.09 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 20:17 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.10 | +0.69 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 15:48 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.02 | +0.50 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kevin Rooney C | 13:42 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Greg McKegg C | 12:59 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 24:13 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 19:26 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.15 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 19:53 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 12:51 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 12:31 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 10:06 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 20:01 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 17:18 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:58 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 17:41 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Gettinger L | 9:34 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 9:37 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 17:59 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 59:56 | +0.21 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam York D | 22:02 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.11 | +0.90 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Lindblom L | 14:45 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.03 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 16:05 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 12:19 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 12:25 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 23:45 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Cates C | 8:10 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 10:15 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 14:53 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 9:54 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gerry Mayhew C | 11:57 | −0.13 | +0.09 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 21:30 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 21:17 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 26:56 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 20:58 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:21 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 21:26 | −0.43 | −0.06 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 15:41 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.04 | −0.50 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 57:35 | −1.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.