ARI beat TOR 2–1. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 5.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Dzingel scored at 12:42 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 51% to 86%. Karel Vejmelka saved 4.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:57 | ARI | Ryan Dzingel unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P3 0:14 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Michael Bunting, Jake Muzzin | 1–1 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 12:42 | ARI | Ryan Dzingel from Nick Schmaltz, Alex Galchenyuk | 1–2 | 51% → 86% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Muzzin D | 20:46 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.50 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 19:29 | +0.24 | +0.44 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 24:24 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.40 | +0.21 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Ondrej Kase R | 20:11 | +0.12 | +0.26 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 17:31 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.35 | −0.39 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 13:35 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 20:50 | −0.05 | +0.21 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 13:35 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 13:17 | −0.06 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| David Kampf C | 12:22 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joey Anderson R | 6:19 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 11:31 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:23 | −0.08 | +0.18 | −0.14 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:59 | −0.10 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 15:11 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 9:21 | −0.26 | +0.24 | −0.39 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 19:00 | −0.28 | +0.07 | −0.32 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| William Nylander R | 19:55 | −0.47 | +0.25 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 57:25 | −0.41 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Dzingel C | 12:11 | 2 | +0.51 | −0.22 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Victor Soderstrom D | 11:45 | +0.25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 11:39 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 8:19 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 12:01 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:18 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 20:27 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 13:55 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 17:14 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 12:09 | −0.24 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dysin Mayo D | 24:29 | −0.26 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Ladd L | 17:12 | −0.27 | −0.22 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 16:38 | −0.32 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 25:57 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 13:10 | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 20:59 | −0.39 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 21:19 | −0.40 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 16:19 | −0.47 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +4.03 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.