COL beat TOR 5–4 in overtime. COL also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Devon Toews scored at 1:12 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Pavel Francouz saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:54 | TOR | Alexander Kerfoot from Michael Bunting | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:17 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Morgan Rielly, Alexander Kerfoot | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 14:50 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Alexander Kerfoot, Jake Muzzin | 3–0 | 78% → 91% |
| P1 17:11 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog | 3–1 | 8% → 21% |
| P2 5:39 | TOR | Nick RitchiePP from Wayne Simmonds, Ilya Mikheyev | 4–1 | 83% → 94% |
| P2 16:46 | COL | Cale Makar from Nazem Kadri, Nicolas Aube-Kubel | 4–2 | 3% → 12% |
| P3 10:06 | COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Mikko Rantanen | 4–3 | 4% → 20% |
| P3 11:42 | COL | J.T. Compher from Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar | 4–4 | 18% → 52% |
| OT 1:12 | COL | Devon Toews from Nazem Kadri, Mikko Rantanen | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 20:53 | 2 | +0.38 | +0.11 | +0.46 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 21:17 | 1 | 2 | +0.35 | −0.20 | +0.30 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Wayne Simmonds R | 7:19 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 16:55 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 11:16 | +0.15 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 10:51 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.07 | +0.29 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Spezza C | 10:43 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 11:18 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:36 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 25:28 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Seney L | 6:52 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| David Kampf C | 17:39 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 23:52 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 18:42 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.24 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 19:51 | −0.22 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 8:16 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 23:18 | −0.57 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 16:59 | −0.68 | −0.24 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 60:43 | −0.24 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen R | 25:09 | 4 | +0.59 | +0.11 | −0.17 | +0.66 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 24:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.27 | +0.24 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Devon Toews D | 24:58 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.25 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 26:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.17 | +0.33 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| J.T. Compher L | 14:44 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.04 | +0.39 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 21:20 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.23 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 11:14 | +0.16 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 12:57 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:26 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.30 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 3:12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 15:49 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Murray D | 12:47 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 10:27 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 13:48 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 21:40 | −0.15 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 7:49 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 16:25 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 13:32 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pavel Francouz G | 46:22 | +1.47 |
| Darcy Kuemper G | 14:50 | −2.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.