CBJ beat NJD 4–3. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Oliver Bjorkstrand scored at 5:00 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 52% to 80%. Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 1.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:01 |  CBJ | Oliver BjorkstrandPP from Jakub Voracek, Patrik Laine | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 4:03 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Gustav Nyquist, Adam Boqvist | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 14:41 | NJD | Nico Hischier from Damon Severson, Jimmy Vesey | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P1 19:40 | NJD | Jimmy Vesey from Dawson Mercer | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 9:31 | CBJ | Egor Chinakhov from Eric Robinson, Sean Kuraly | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 13:32 | NJD | Marián Studenic from Jesper Boqvist, Ryan Graves | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 5:00 | CBJ | Oliver Bjorkstrand from Jakub Voracek, Adam Boqvist | 3–4 | 52% → 80% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marián Studenic R | 9:56 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.13 | +0.67 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 21:02 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.20 | +0.61 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 18:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.06 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Christian Jaros D | 8:38 | +0.18 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 9:43 | +0.16 | +0.16 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.37 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 20:10 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 20:27 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 10:04 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Ty Smith D | 12:35 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton White D | 6:04 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nolan Foote L | 7:17 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 22:04 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 18:03 | −0.14 | +0.24 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 19:54 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 26:42 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 17:45 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 21:39 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 25:43 | −0.65 | −0.03 | −0.57 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 58:00 | −1.05 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 20:33 | 2 | +1.78 | +0.13 | +1.65 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 8:59 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.56 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 22:11 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.05 | +0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:55 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 17:12 | +0.14 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 17:29 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dean Kukan D | 11:32 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 27:20 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 7:40 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Voracek R | 17:30 | 2 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:00 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 12:47 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 11:30 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 22:24 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 11:52 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 20:17 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.12 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jake Bean D | 18:45 | −0.46 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 18:04 | 1 | −0.60 | −0.17 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 60:00 | −0.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.