BUF beat MTL 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 2.9, MTL 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jeff Skinner scored at 8:16 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 78%. Samuel Montembeault allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:41 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Casey Fitzgerald, Alex Tuch | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 1:11 | MTL | Mike Hoffman from Corey Schueneman, Paul Byron | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 10:15 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Rasmus Dahlin | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 11:13 | MTL | Jeff Petry from Jake Evans, Rem Pitlick | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 16:09 | MTL | Joel Armia from Ryan Poehling, Brett Kulak | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 18:24 | BUF | Tage ThompsonPP from Peyton Krebs, Jeff Skinner | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 8:16 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Alex Tuch | 4–3 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 18:14 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Alex Tuch | 5–3 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:32 | 4 | 1 | +2.88 | +0.06 | +2.87 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:25 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.13 | +0.85 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | |
| Cody Eakin C | 14:18 | +0.29 | +0.14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 23:16 | +0.16 | +0.19 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 21:22 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.31 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Fitzgerald D | 19:41 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 17:16 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 17:55 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 15:12 | −0.11 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Robert Hagg D | 19:09 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:14 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| John Hayden C | 10:40 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:51 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 10:25 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 11:42 | −0.24 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 12:44 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 19:45 | 3 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.47 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Rasmus Asplund C | 14:33 | −0.55 | +0.14 | −0.69 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 60:00 | −0.20 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Hoffman C | 15:46 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.88 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 14:34 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.07 | +0.79 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 22:23 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Schueneman D | 19:25 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 18:38 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 14:44 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 11:07 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 18:16 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rem Pitlick C | 13:18 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:45 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 20:46 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 20:20 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:43 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Chris Wideman D | 16:08 | −0.23 | +0.05 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kale Clague D | 15:35 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 12:45 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 14:09 | −0.49 | −0.06 | −0.47 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:51 | −0.52 | −0.04 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 58:18 | −2.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.