ARI beat CHI 6–4. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Travis Boyd scored on the power play at 9:56 of the second, moving ARI’s win probability from 54% to 74%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:16 | ARI | Dysin Mayo from Shayne Gostisbehere, Alex Galchenyuk | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 19:06 | ARI | Johan Larsson from J.J. Moser, Shayne Gostisbehere | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 1:01 | CHI | Kirby Dach from Philipp Kurashev, Connor Murphy | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 5:24 | CHI | MacKenzie Entwistle from Jonathan Toews, Calvin de Haan | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 9:56 | ARI | Travis BoydPP from Andrew Ladd, Phil Kessel | 2–3 | 54% → 74% |
| P3 3:10 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Travis Boyd | 2–4 | 78% → 94% |
| P3 4:01 | ARI | Johan LarssonPP from Travis Boyd, Phil Kessel | 2–5 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 6:29 | CHI | Jake McCabe from Riley Stillman, Patrick Kane | 3–5 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 13:21 | CHI | Alex DeBrincatPP from Dylan Strome, Patrick Kane | 4–5 | 2% → 14% |
| P3 19:31 | ARI | Johan LarssonEN from Lawson Crouse, Clayton Keller | 4–6 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCabe D | 20:21 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.12 | +0.85 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 23:08 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.14 | +0.61 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 13:41 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.15 | +0.54 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 21:23 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.03 | +0.41 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 15:44 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 15:58 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Nicolas Beaudin D | 1:11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 10:08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 17:02 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 19:03 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dominik Kubalik L | 16:25 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 26:40 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 16:08 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henrik Borgstrom C | 12:44 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 13:30 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jujhar Khaira L | 11:02 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 22:28 | 2 | −0.43 | −0.17 | −0.33 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 17:55 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.08 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 58:29 | −2.47 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Larsson L | 19:46 | 3 | +1.63 | +0.22 | +1.62 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Dysin Mayo D | 21:54 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.02 | +0.86 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 15:57 | 1 | 2 | +0.66 | +0.15 | +0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Clayton Keller R | 19:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.14 | +0.86 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 15:55 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 12:40 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 19:21 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Dineen D | 15:32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 18:36 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Antoine Roussel L | 11:47 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 13:17 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 9:54 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Andrew Ladd L | 15:46 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 15:46 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.17 | −0.32 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 9:17 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:12 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 22:38 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 16:35 | −0.57 | −0.11 | −0.61 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | −0.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.