COL beat CHI 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (COL 2.5, CHI 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Cale Makar scored at 2:38 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:43 | COL | Erik Johnson from Nazem Kadri | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:54 | COL | Alex Newhook from Nicolas Aube-Kubel | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 4:47 | CHI | Jonathan Toews from MacKenzie Entwistle, Seth Jones | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P3 2:18 | CHI | Alex DeBrincatPP from Patrick Kane, Seth Jones | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 2:58 | CHI | Alex DeBrincatPP from Patrick Kane, Dylan Strome | 2–3 | 53% → 78% |
| P3 11:44 | COL | Erik Johnson from Andre Burakovsky, Nazem Kadri | 3–3 | 15% → 48% |
| OT 2:38 | COL | Cale Makar from Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Johnson D | 12:58 | 2 | +1.61 | +0.07 | +1.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 28:32 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 12:18 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.55 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 13:22 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:38 | 2 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 7:01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 7:16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 17:28 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 9:39 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 22:46 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 21:20 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Devon Toews D | 28:05 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 4:50 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 20:22 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:59 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.22 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:15 | −0.34 | −0.26 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 20:17 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 11:36 | −0.37 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 62:38 | −0.22 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:35 | 2 | +1.89 | +0.17 | +1.52 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 18:25 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.15 | +0.60 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 22:46 | +0.15 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 12:38 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 9:28 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 18:36 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 11:45 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 21:39 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 15:24 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 19:25 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 10:02 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 6:54 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 29:45 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominik Kubalik L | 14:34 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 19:37 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.17 | −0.36 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 18:09 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Borgstrom C | 13:37 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 22:25 | −0.80 | −0.20 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 62:38 | −1.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.