WSH beat MTL 5–2. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Joe Snively scored at 5:04 of the first, moving WSH’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Cayden Primeau allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:04 | WSH | Joe Snively from Justin Schultz | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 5:24 | WSH | Connor McMichael from Lars Eller, Trevor van Riemsdyk | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P2 3:40 | WSH | Carl Hagelin from Martin Fehérváry, John Carlson | 3–0 | 82% → 94% |
| P2 4:09 | MTL | Rem Pitlick from Josh Anderson, Kale Clague | 3–1 | 6% → 18% |
| P2 5:18 | WSH | Joe Snively from Evgeny Kuznetsov, Justin Schultz | 4–1 | 82% → 94% |
| P2 15:58 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki, Tyler Toffoli | 4–2 | 4% → 13% |
| P3 18:45 | WSH | Tom WilsonEN from Joe Snively, Evgeny Kuznetsov | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Snively C | 12:46 | 2 | 1 | +1.48 | −0.01 | +1.49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Carl Hagelin L | 16:56 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.03 | +0.86 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 7:51 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.01 | +0.66 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 17:06 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 17:03 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 16:47 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 17:22 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 19:16 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:20 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 16:21 | −0.16 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 17:39 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 8:44 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 16:27 | 2 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 13:57 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 13:18 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 14:14 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:11 | −0.36 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 18:40 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 60:00 | +1.64 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 13:01 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.04 | +0.75 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 17:24 | +0.29 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rem Pitlick C | 18:07 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.14 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 19:31 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Kale Clague D | 13:48 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 10:06 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 19:10 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 15:36 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:49 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 22:13 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 16:45 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 18:22 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:01 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 10:27 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Chris Wideman D | 15:29 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 21:52 | −0.33 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 11:53 | −0.49 | −0.02 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 23:24 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.05 | −0.52 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 31:44 | +0.78 |
| Cayden Primeau G | 25:18 | −2.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.