BOS beat NJD 5–3. BOS also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: David Pastrnak scored at 14:11 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 51% to 87%. Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:53 | BOS | Curtis Lazar unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 0:57 |  NJD | Nathan Bastian unassisted | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 1:17 | BOS | Oskar Steen from Nick Foligno, Derek Forbort | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 3:05 | NJD | Tomas Tatar from Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 9:42 | BOS | Trent Frederic from Curtis Lazar | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 7:36 | NJD | Damon Severson from Michael McLeod | 3–3 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 14:11 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Taylor Hall, Erik Haula | 3–4 | 51% → 87% |
| P3 19:37 | BOS | Brandon Carlo from Tomas Nosek | 3–5 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Tatar L | 14:58 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.07 | +0.65 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 16:10 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.08 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 25:08 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.15 | +0.72 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 25:41 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 26:07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marián Studenic R | 14:26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 24:57 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Jaros D | 7:48 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Smith D | 7:51 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 8:53 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Geertsen L | 7:38 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 9:50 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 15:47 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.09 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:52 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Andreas Johnsson L | 19:45 | −0.33 | −0.14 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 17:16 | −0.38 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 16:56 | −0.46 | −0.00 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 20:08 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.17 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 58:49 | −1.65 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Carlo D | 19:28 | 1 | +1.12 | +0.21 | +0.89 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 12:01 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.03 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Oskar Steen C | 11:45 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.14 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 11:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.06 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| David Pastrnak R | 15:44 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.05 | +0.56 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 16:33 | +0.19 | +0.21 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.14 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 16:01 | +0.17 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 14:31 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 18:01 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Nosek L | 13:00 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 20:48 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 24:15 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 19:59 | −0.03 | +0.16 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 18:37 | −0.09 | +0.13 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 16:32 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Erik Haula L | 16:22 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 14:09 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.11 | −0.46 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Smith C | 18:26 | −0.54 | −0.09 | −0.46 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:00 | −0.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.