TOR beat CAR 4–3 in overtime. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mitch Marner scored at 2:51 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:08 | CAR | Nino Niederreiter from Ian Cole, Martin Necas | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 16:16 |  TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from William Nylander, John Tavares | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 19:37 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner | 1–2 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 0:08 | CAR | Tony DeAngelo from Jesper Fast, Jaccob Slavin | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 9:23 | CAR | Derek Stepan from Tony DeAngelo, Steven Lorentz | 3–2 | 48% → 79% |
| P3 14:12 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Timothy Liljegren | 3–3 | 15% → 51% |
| OT 2:51 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Morgan Rielly, John Tavares | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Stepan C | 9:08 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.14 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:43 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.04 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 21:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.05 | +0.71 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 23:40 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 17:22 | +0.04 | +0.13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 15:47 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 9:41 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.16 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:32 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 6:47 | −0.11 | +0.20 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 26:50 | −0.11 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 11:01 | −0.13 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 19:05 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 25:19 | −0.29 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 14:54 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:51 | −0.39 | −0.29 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 19:55 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.15 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 16:11 | −0.46 | −0.39 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:47 | −0.60 | −0.10 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 62:51 | −0.29 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 21:17 | 2 | 1 | +1.73 | +0.51 | +1.14 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Auston Matthews C | 20:24 | 2 | +1.36 | +0.32 | +0.99 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 17:50 | +0.23 | +0.16 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 14:24 | +0.18 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 14:19 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 22:30 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 14:32 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| John Tavares C | 19:51 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.22 | −0.51 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:13 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 10:04 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 21:24 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 8:30 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 9:49 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Kase R | 16:16 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 20:54 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:35 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.22 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 15:52 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 20:02 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.05 | −0.52 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 62:38 | −0.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.