WPG beat VGK 5–4 in overtime. WPG also won the expected-goals battle 4.7 to 4.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kyle Connor scored at 2:39 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:05 |  VGK | Michael Amadio from Keegan Kolesar, Zach Whitecloud | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 16:59 | VGK | Evgenii Dadonov from Michael Amadio, Brett Howden | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 2:19 | WPG | Jansen Harkins from Brenden Dillon | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 2:39 | WPG | Kristian Reichel unassisted | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 2:28 | WPG | Paul Stastny from Josh Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo | 3–2 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 4:16 | WPG | Andrew CoppPP from Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele | 4–2 | 76% → 92% |
| P3 13:37 | VGK | Mattias Janmark from Zach Whitecloud, Brayden McNabb | 4–3 | 2% → 15% |
| P3 19:51 | VGK | Mattias JanmarkPP from Nicolas Roy, Shea Theodore | 4–4 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 2:39 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Josh Morrissey | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jansen Harkins C | 16:37 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.06 | +0.71 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kristian Reichel C | 11:32 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.04 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 21:32 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.17 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 23:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.17 | +0.48 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andrew Copp C | 17:34 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.26 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 24:33 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 18:49 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Gustafsson C | 2:19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 18:11 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 15:00 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kristian Vesalainen L | 7:06 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:49 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 21:53 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 16:50 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 19:12 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.46 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 25:07 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.06 | −0.33 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 21:56 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.48 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Dominic Toninato C | 6:29 | −0.50 | −0.04 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 61:43 | −0.11 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Janmark C | 16:49 | 2 | +1.50 | −0.07 | +1.58 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 11:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.74 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 15:49 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.00 | +0.80 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 25:24 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.42 | −0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Coghlan D | 13:42 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 18:29 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.14 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nolan Patrick C | 10:46 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 16:40 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:20 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 17:18 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 10:02 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 19:20 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 10:17 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 20:03 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.28 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 27:24 | −0.36 | −0.28 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:36 | −0.46 | −0.06 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 13:13 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.22 | −0.65 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| William Karlsson C | 18:30 | −0.73 | −0.10 | −0.68 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 61:10 | −0.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.