COL beat ANA 4–2. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Logan O'Connor scored at 18:49 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 50% to 96%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:55 | ANA | Sam Carrick from Kevin Shattenkirk, Troy Terry | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 3:22 | ANA | Cam FowlerPP from Maxime Comtois, Kevin Shattenkirk | 2–0 | 67% → 81% |
| P2 11:47 | COL | Devon ToewsPP from Mikko Rantanen, Nazem Kadri | 2–1 | 15% → 32% |
| P3 3:19 | COL | Gabriel LandeskogPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar | 2–2 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 18:49 | COL | Logan O'Connor from Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen | 2–3 | 50% → 96% |
| P3 19:28 | COL | Mikko RantanenEN from Nathan MacKinnon | 2–4 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 18:38 | 2 | +0.46 | +0.33 | −0.04 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 13:13 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.06 | +0.37 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 10:03 | +0.10 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 26:14 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.30 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Maxime Comtois L | 17:59 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.14 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 9:09 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 18:47 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 23:58 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Buddy Robinson R | 8:58 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 18:06 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vinni Lettieri C | 9:41 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 11:55 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 18:39 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 16:17 | −0.29 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 10:37 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 16:59 | −0.46 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 21:35 | −0.51 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 19:42 | −0.51 | −0.12 | −0.17 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 59:33 | +0.37 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 22:03 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.28 | +0.38 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 22:35 | 1 | 2 | +0.48 | +0.36 | −0.35 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Devon Toews D | 24:10 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.41 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 24:43 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.32 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:18 | 3 | +0.26 | +0.29 | −0.39 | +0.36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:06 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 9:46 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 2:53 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 14:47 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Darren Helm C | 7:38 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 13:14 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 18:35 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 10:24 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 15:36 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 13:33 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 13:18 | −0.27 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 20:29 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 18:07 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 60:00 | +0.79 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.