PIT beat SJS 8–5. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 4.6 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Evan Rodrigues scored at 1:03 of the first, moving PIT’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Casey DeSmith allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:03 | PIT | Evan Rodrigues from Marcus Pettersson, Danton Heinen | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 3:12 | PIT | Jake Guentzel from Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 4:11 | PIT | Evan Rodrigues from Danton Heinen, Dominik Simon | 0–3 | 82% → 89% |
| P1 6:09 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin | 0–4 | 89% → 99% |
| P1 15:33 | SJS | Alexander Barabanov from Timo Meier, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 1–4 | 1% → 8% |
| P1 16:29 | PIT | Kasper Bjorkqvist from Radim Zohorna, Sam Lafferty | 1–5 | 92% → 99% |
| P1 19:32 | PIT | Bryan Rust from John Marino, Marcus Pettersson | 1–6 | 99% → 99% |
| P2 14:27 | SJS | Brent BurnsPP from Nick Bonino, Noah Gregor | 2–6 | 1% → 0% |
| P3 0:20 | SJS | Matt Nieto from Jake Middleton, Andrew Cogliano | 3–6 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 3:01 | SJS | Jake Middleton from Erik Karlsson, Timo Meier | 4–6 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 4:09 | SJS | Logan Couture from Timo Meier | 5–6 | 6% → 21% |
| P3 17:59 | PIT | Evan RodriguesPP from Kris Letang, Bryan Rust | 5–7 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:49 | PIT | Bryan RustEN from Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel | 5–8 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Burns D | 23:49 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.03 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 15:29 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.04 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 21:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.73 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matt Nieto L | 14:22 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Couture C | 18:32 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.04 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 26:53 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 9:38 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Pederson C | 10:20 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 10:34 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 16:35 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 16:26 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Meloche D | 13:22 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 15:36 | −0.10 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 16:27 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 18:45 | 3 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 14:13 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Dahlen C | 14:22 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 19:37 | −0.40 | −0.04 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Sawchenko G | 38:32 | +1.29 |
| James Reimer G | 20:00 | −4.20 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Rodrigues C | 17:52 | 3 | +2.22 | +0.13 | +2.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 18:33 | 3 | 2 | +1.31 | +0.04 | +1.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Kasper Bjorkqvist R | 8:54 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.72 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brock McGinn L | 16:11 | +0.06 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 24:37 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 15:13 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 16:06 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 14:27 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 14:15 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radim Zohorna L | 8:27 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| John Marino D | 18:20 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 29:05 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 9:31 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:39 | 2 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.10 | |
| Dominik Simon C | 15:32 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.05 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 14:57 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 14:39 | −0.68 | +0.01 | −0.71 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 59:40 | −2.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.