NYI beat EDM 3–2 in overtime. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Noah Dobson scored at 3:52 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:40 |  NYI | Anders LeePP from Kieffer Bellows, Noah Dobson | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 0:31 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Duncan Keith, Cody Ceci | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 17:13 | EDM | Darnell Nurse from Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 2:23 | NYI | Anthony Beauvillier from Austin Czarnik, Ross Johnston | 2–2 | 26% → 52% |
| OT 3:52 | NYI | Noah Dobson from Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:40 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.26 | +0.46 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 17:54 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.14 | −0.14 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 29:38 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.31 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 10:24 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kyle Turris C | 11:37 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 12:35 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 24:00 | −0.01 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 15:17 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 11:15 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Benson L | 10:02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Slater Koekkoek D | 12:25 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sceviour C | 12:29 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Duncan Keith D | 22:27 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 12:42 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 16:50 | −0.24 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 22:59 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.35 | −0.04 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 22:01 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.05 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 19:07 | −0.38 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mikko Koskinen G | 63:52 | +0.39 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Dobson D | 24:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.24 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 15:32 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.06 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 22:16 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Austin Czarnik C | 6:40 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Anders Lee C | 19:06 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.13 | +0.18 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ross Johnston L | 6:58 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zdeno Chara D | 22:05 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 21:03 | +0.08 | +0.18 | −0.15 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 12:17 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 16:45 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kieffer Bellows L | 18:12 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andy Greene D | 18:35 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:50 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Robin Salo D | 11:26 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 23:03 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 16:45 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 16:17 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 21:55 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 63:49 | −0.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.