BOS beat BUF 4–3 in overtime. BOS also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Charlie Coyle scored at 0:34 of overtime, moving BOS’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Linus Ullmark allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:33 | BUF | Vinnie Hinostroza from Brett Murray, Rasmus Dahlin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 3:47 | BOS | Craig Smith from Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 11:32 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Alex Tuch, Tage Thompson | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 19:11 | BUF | Alex TuchPP from Peyton Krebs, Tage Thompson | 3–1 | 73% → 89% |
| P3 3:24 | BOS | Nick Foligno from Jake DeBrusk | 3–2 | 9% → 25% |
| P3 4:49 | BOS | Taylor Hall from Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy | 3–3 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 0:34 | BOS | Charlie Coyle from Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 14:26 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.11 | +0.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 13:36 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Brett Murray L | 14:06 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Butcher D | 15:19 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 27:58 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.37 | −0.04 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 15:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.41 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Cody Eakin C | 21:01 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Casey Fitzgerald D | 12:41 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 16:17 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.26 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Ethan Prow D | 11:52 | −0.18 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 17:13 | −0.24 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 9:52 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 19:07 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 20:02 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.14 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 8:42 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 16:39 | −0.30 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 11:39 | −0.32 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 27:10 | −0.35 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 60:34 | +0.01 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Marchand L | 20:12 | 2 | +0.79 | +0.31 | −0.11 | +0.39 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 15:52 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.15 | +0.42 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 15:55 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.16 | +0.33 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Carlo D | 17:41 | +0.29 | +0.40 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 11:54 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.17 | +0.17 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 19:25 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 20:20 | +0.22 | +0.23 | −0.17 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 17:06 | +0.22 | +0.34 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 19:04 | +0.21 | +0.18 | −0.04 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 19:06 | +0.19 | +0.28 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 12:16 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.18 | −0.21 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 24:22 | 3 | +0.15 | +0.11 | −0.15 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 15:01 | +0.15 | +0.12 | −0.06 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 12:33 | +0.07 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 9:21 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 17:29 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.17 | +0.27 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Nosek L | 13:39 | −0.21 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.08 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 13:40 | −0.24 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:34 | −1.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.