NJD beat EDM 6–5 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (EDM 3.2, NJD 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jack Hughes scored at 2:55 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Mike Smith allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:38 |  NJD | Jack HughesPP from Dougie Hamilton, Jesper Bratt | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 2:48 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Ryan McLeod, Cody Ceci | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 3:05 | NJD | Nico Hischier from Jesper Boqvist, Ryan Graves | 1–2 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:00 | EDM | Kailer Yamamoto from Slater Koekkoek, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 2–2 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 11:10 | NJD | Dawson Mercer from Andreas Johnsson, Damon Severson | 2–3 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 7:57 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Duncan Keith, Kailer Yamamoto | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 5:14 | NJD | Janne Kuokkanen from Andreas Johnsson, Dawson Mercer | 3–4 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 7:06 | EDM | Devin Shore from Ryan McLeod, William Lagesson | 4–4 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 8:18 | EDM | Kailer Yamamoto from Leon Draisaitl, Duncan Keith | 5–4 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 19:28 | NJD | Yegor SharangovichPP from Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes | 5–5 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 2:55 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Jesper Bratt, Damon Severson | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 19:15 | 2 | 1 | +1.65 | +0.15 | +1.53 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Connor McDavid C | 27:57 | 2 | +1.38 | −0.10 | +1.36 | +0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Devin Shore C | 11:27 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.07 | +0.74 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 20:11 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 25:35 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Lagesson D | 2:45 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Duncan Keith D | 20:02 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.13 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 8:41 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 14:16 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sceviour C | 13:02 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 14:08 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 9:58 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 16:01 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 20:39 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Slater Koekkoek D | 8:09 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 24:27 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.08 | −0.48 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 29:09 | −0.79 | −0.23 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 20:52 | −0.81 | −0.05 | −0.58 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 62:55 | −1.96 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes C | 19:40 | 2 | 1 | +1.48 | +0.50 | +1.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 15:32 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.06 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 18:19 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.05 | +0.50 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 15:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.02 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Damon Severson D | 26:19 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:15 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.50 | −0.48 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| P.K. Subban D | 15:30 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 12:05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 16:45 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Marián Studenic R | 10:24 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 23:49 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 16:04 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 20:31 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.19 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Smith D | 15:25 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 19:27 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 11:43 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 17:55 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 13:48 | −0.31 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 62:15 | −1.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.