WSH beat DET 3–1. Expected goals were close to even (WSH 2.2, DET 2.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alex Ovechkin scored on the power play at 17:09 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 51% to 91%. Ilya Samsonov saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:43 |  DET | Pius Suter from Sam Gagner, Vladislav Namestnikov | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 15:53 | WSH | Evgeny Kuznetsov from Lucas Johansen, Matt Irwin | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 17:09 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom | 2–1 | 51% → 91% |
| P3 19:19 | WSH | Alex OvechkinEN from Garnet Hathaway, John Carlson | 3–1 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 20:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.07 | +0.53 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 19:54 | 2 | +0.53 | +0.22 | +0.27 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 17:01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 14:12 | +0.17 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 12:33 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Johansen D | 12:18 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 10:09 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 13:12 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Leason R | 9:22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 16:29 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 10:56 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 18:08 | −0.06 | +0.17 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 21:10 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 26:03 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.15 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michal Kempny D | 19:52 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 13:48 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 16:34 | −0.55 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 60:00 | +1.11 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pius Suter C | 17:40 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.07 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 12:23 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 19:38 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 17:03 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 10:31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 14:03 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Danny DeKeyser D | 18:14 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 10:25 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 20:31 | −0.05 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 17:17 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 17:09 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 11:36 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 17:56 | −0.22 | +0.13 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 19:47 | −0.27 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 17:39 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 15:01 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 22:39 | −0.36 | +0.05 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:10 | −0.45 | −0.16 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 58:19 | +0.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.