SJS beat PHI 3–2 in overtime. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 4.8 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tomas Hertl scored at 4:29 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Felix Sandstrom saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:23 | PHI | Morgan Frost from Travis Konecny, Oskar Lindblom | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 5:20 | SJS | Logan CoutureSH from Andrew Cogliano, Jake Middleton | 1–1 | 32% → 52% |
| P2 7:20 | SJS | Brent Burns from Tomas Hertl, Jake Middleton | 1–2 | 52% → 73% |
| P3 15:57 | PHI | Joel Farabee from Oskar Lindblom, Keith Yandle | 2–2 | 10% → 49% |
| OT 4:29 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Erik Karlsson, Noah Gregor | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Farabee L | 21:18 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.31 | +0.85 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 14:41 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.19 | +0.51 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jackson Cates C | 10:30 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 26:29 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 9:52 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 21:10 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 16:46 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 13:04 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Brown C | 13:04 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 24:02 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 20:48 | −0.26 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 18:26 | −0.29 | −0.24 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 11:53 | 2 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 15:06 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zack MacEwen C | 9:34 | −0.39 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Max Willman C | 12:59 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 25:50 | −0.41 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 19:55 | −0.47 | −0.18 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Sandstrom G | 64:29 | +1.73 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl C | 21:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.07 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Logan Couture C | 22:21 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.21 | +0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brent Burns D | 24:41 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.11 | +0.53 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Radim Simek D | 11:35 | +0.35 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 29:46 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.52 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 22:17 | 2 | +0.30 | +0.36 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 7:48 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 16:46 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 14:47 | +0.04 | +0.25 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 18:10 | +0.03 | +0.29 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Meloche D | 11:30 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Pederson C | 10:57 | −0.14 | +0.19 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 8:22 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 13:49 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.34 | −0.54 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Noah Gregor L | 19:02 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 17:57 | −0.23 | +0.09 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Dahlen C | 18:40 | −0.42 | −0.05 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 17:35 | −0.48 | +0.09 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 63:49 | −0.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.