SJS beat ARI 8–7 in a shootout. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Andrew Ladd scored on the power play at 18:31 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 6% to 50%. Scott Wedgewood allowed 5.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:46 | SJS | Alexander Barabanov from Logan Couture, Timo Meier | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:36 |  ARI | Lawson Crouse from Phil Kessel | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 11:22 | SJS | Nick Bonino from Matt Nieto, Andrew Cogliano | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 17:40 | ARI | J.J. Moser from Lawson Crouse | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 5:27 | SJS | Radim Simek from Jayden Halbgewachs, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 5:34 | SJS | Jeffrey Viel from Jonah Gadjovich, Lane Pederson | 2–4 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 7:48 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Phil Kessel, Johan Larsson | 3–4 | 12% → 27% |
| P2 14:13 | SJS | Timo Meier unassisted | 3–5 | 75% → 90% |
| P2 19:37 | ARI | J.J. MoserPP from Johan Larsson, Loui Eriksson | 4–5 | 9% → 23% |
| P3 1:44 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Noah Gregor | 4–6 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 7:35 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Dysin Mayo, Phil Kessel | 5–6 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 13:00 | SJS | Logan Couture from Alexander Barabanov, Erik Karlsson | 5–7 | 86% → 98% |
| P3 16:51 | ARI | Shayne Gostisbehere from Phil Kessel, Johan Larsson | 6–7 | 1% → 9% |
| P3 18:31 | ARI | Andrew LaddPP from Lawson Crouse, Shayne Gostisbehere | 7–7 | 6% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Moser D | 22:15 | 2 | +2.03 | +0.11 | +1.73 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 21:14 | 2 | 2 | +1.85 | +0.63 | +1.25 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 27:28 | 1 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.30 | +0.57 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andrew Ladd L | 12:45 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.36 | +0.36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 18:40 | 4 | +0.38 | +0.86 | −0.55 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 23:06 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.03 | +0.63 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.09 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 24:56 | +0.27 | +0.28 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 20:52 | 3 | +0.23 | +0.48 | −0.28 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Antoine Roussel L | 11:14 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 12:48 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.14 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jan Jenik C | 9:26 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 21:00 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.30 | ||
| Blake Speers C | 11:00 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cam Dineen D | 13:17 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 17:22 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle Capobianco D | 12:06 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dysin Mayo D | 23:49 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.22 | −0.53 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 10:27 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 64:51 | −5.05 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Couture C | 20:50 | 1 | 1 | +1.11 | −0.37 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.70 |
| Jeffrey Viel L | 7:50 | 1 | +1.06 | −0.03 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 21:16 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.14 | +0.40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.40 | |
| Radim Simek D | 12:06 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.03 | +0.92 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 21:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.04 | +0.55 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 18:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.01 | +0.45 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Nick Bonino C | 20:13 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.23 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Lane Pederson C | 10:48 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 26:21 | −0.19 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 21:19 | −0.24 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 6:13 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 16:36 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 13:16 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 17:20 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 28:03 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.35 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 17:15 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jayden Halbgewachs L | 11:34 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 23:59 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.40 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 65:00 | −2.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.