ANA beat SJS 4–3 in a shootout. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Rickard Rakell scored at 16:09 of the second, moving ANA’s win probability from 29% to 53%. Anthony Stolarz saved 5.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:38 | ANA | Derek Grant from Sam Carrick, Nicolas Deslauriers | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:10 | SJS | Logan Couture from Brent Burns | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 17:22 | SJS | Brent Burns from Matt Nieto, Timo Meier | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 7:00 | ANA | Rickard Rakell from Trevor Zegras, Cam Fowler | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 13:44 | SJS | Logan CouturePP from Brent Burns, Timo Meier | 3–2 | 48% → 70% |
| P2 16:09 | ANA | Rickard Rakell from Adam Henrique | 3–3 | 29% → 53% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Burns D | 30:25 | 1 | 2 | +0.91 | +0.44 | +0.26 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Logan Couture C | 23:19 | 2 | +0.57 | +0.41 | +0.62 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.30 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 12:49 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Dzingel C | 16:47 | +0.24 | +0.35 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 21:22 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Meloche D | 20:25 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 14:14 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 10:34 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 21:54 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.40 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 24:19 | −0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jasper Weatherby C | 7:08 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 6:45 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 15:21 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 13:13 | −0.17 | +0.17 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 16:05 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 11:46 | −0.30 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 19:01 | −0.53 | +0.47 | −0.43 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 24:34 | −0.55 | +0.23 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.36 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 65:00 | −0.81 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickard Rakell R | 16:13 | 2 | +0.97 | −0.15 | +0.67 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.31 | |
| Trevor Zegras C | 17:36 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.70 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 12:21 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 11:38 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Derek Grant C | 15:23 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.27 | +0.36 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Joshua Mahura D | 10:43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 10:59 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 29:25 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 15:34 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.37 | −0.03 | −0.17 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 17:28 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 29:10 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 17:44 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 14:31 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 22:30 | −0.26 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 14:29 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 22:23 | −0.30 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 19:42 | −0.39 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 11:52 | −0.58 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 65:00 | +5.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.